Gino The Greek
Thursday, May 14, 2026
▸ The Lock · Super Bowl LXI

The book is asleep on DAL. We're not.

DraftKings has DAL at +3072 to win it all — an implied 3.2%. Our model says 11.8%. Model 11.8% vs DK devig 3.2% (+273% edge)

Our Number
11.8%
The Book
3.2%
Edge
+273%
Stake
$206
Confidence
STRONG
See the case →

The supporting cast

2 more STRONG plays · $376 total stake across the book · edges to 352%

Super Bowl Future

IND at +7951

Model 5.6% vs DK devig 1.2% (+352% edge)

Our Prob
5.6%
Book
1.2%
Edge
+352%
Stake
$104
Read the case →
Super Bowl Future

CIN at +2706

Model 6.9% vs DK devig 3.6% (+93% edge)

Our Prob
6.9%
Book
3.6%
Edge
+93%
Stake
$66
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Tuesday Mailbag · This Week

The Tourists Are Buying Lottery Tickets. We're Selling Them.

Miami at 0.3% to win the Super Bowl on the book. Three-tenths of one percent. The room is looking at that price, seeing a fat number next to Tua's name, and walking right past it like it's a panhandler. Our number says 3.8%. That's not a typo. That's a thirteen-times-over mispricing and it's sitting there because nobod

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Power Top 5
1DAL+4.34
2SF+2.76
3GB+2.65
4BUF+2.60
5CIN+2.22
Full ratings →