The Tourists Are Buying Lottery Tickets. We're Selling Them.
The Number
Miami at 0.3% to win the Super Bowl on the book. Three-tenths of one percent. The room is looking at that price, seeing a fat number next to Tua's name, and walking right past it like it's a panhandler. Our number says 3.8%. That's not a typo. That's a thirteen-times-over mispricing and it's sitting there because nobody wants to touch Miami in May.
I get it. The Dolphins are a punchline. Cold weather, soft schedule paper tigers, Tua's head, the whole bit. Tourist conventional wisdom says fade them on sight. Fine. But conventional wisdom is already baked into 0.3%. At that price you're not betting they're good. You're betting they're not dead. There's a difference and the book is pricing them dead.
Eighty-eight dollars to win something that pays like a Powerball scratcher. I'm not saying Miami's hoisting the trophy. I'm saying the implied probability is a fucking joke and somebody at the desk fell asleep on it.
That's the whole game in May. You don't need to be right. You need to be less wrong than the number.
Tourist Traps
Cleveland anywhere on the board. Bottom of our rankings. 5.6 projected wins. The room sees a new coordinator hire or a draft pick and convinces itself there's a story. There isn't. Whatever win total they hang, take the under and go to lunch.
San Francisco Super Bowl at the current price. I love the roster. Number two in our power ratings. But the book has them juiced like everyone already knows, and the public is piling on because piling on the Niners in May is what the public does every May. We're not on it at this price. There's no edge. Move on.
Minnesota anything. Rating of negative four. Projected six wins. The tourists keep treating that division like it's wide open and Minnesota's a sleeper. Look at the number. They're not a sleeper. They're a corpse with a pulse oximeter.
The Mailbag
No questions in the bag this week. Season hasn't started, the room is quiet, and most of you are still pretending you don't have a problem. Fine. I'll invent one because I know what you're thinking.
"Gino, futures in May are a sucker's game. Why am I tying up money for nine months when I could be betting baseball?" — Some Guy In My Head
Because the book is at its laziest in May. That's the whole answer. In September they sharpen every number because action's pouring in and they can't afford to be off. Right now? Half these prices were posted in February and nobody's touched the dial since. The Dallas number at 3.2% on the book versus our 11.8% — that's not a number somebody fought over. That's a number somebody typed and forgot. You're not tying up money for nine months. You're buying mispriced paper before the market wakes up. If you can't handle the carry, bet smaller. But don't tell me the timing's wrong. The timing is exactly right and that's why I'm writing this column in May instead of November.
Last Week's Beats
Nothing resolved. Season hasn't kicked off. I'm not going to pretend I had a great week when I didn't have a week at all. Anybody telling you they're 14-2 in May is selling something and you should stop answering their calls.
When the games start, the numbers go on the board honest. Wins, losses, dollars in, dollars out. That's the deal here. No spin, no creative accounting, no "we were one bad bounce away." The number is the number.
The Lock
Dallas to win the Super Bowl. Our model has them at 11.8%. The book has them at 3.2%. That's the biggest dollar stake on the strong board for a reason — $206 — and it's not because I'm a Cowboys fan. I'd rather chew glass.
It's because they're number one in our power ratings at +4.34, projected for 10.6 wins, and the price on the book treats them like they're the fourth team in their own conference. Whatever you think about Dallas — the drama, the January faceplants, the owner running his mouth — the roster grades out and the schedule grades out and the price doesn't reflect any of it. The public hates them right now and the book is pricing the hate, not the team.
You don't need them to win it. You need the price to move toward fair by August. It will. Get on before it does.
Dallas. Super Bowl. Whatever number's on the screen when you open the app — take it before somebody at the desk wakes up.
That's the column. Send me questions before next Tuesday or I'll invent more of them and put worse handles on you.