Why we're on CIN at +2706.
Model 6.9% vs DK devig 3.6% (+93% edge)
The number, broken down
DraftKings posts CIN at +2706, an implied probability of 3.6% after we strip the vig from the full Super Bowl market. Our Monte Carlo — 50,000 full-season simulations on opponent-adjusted EPA power ratings — puts them at 6.9%.
That's a +93% edge over the devigged book. Fair price by our model is +1356; the book is shading us a number we should be hammering.
Underlying: CIN sits at +2.22 in our power rankings (#5 of 32), projecting to 9.8 wins, 67.3% playoff odds, 43.9% to win the division, 13.6% to win the conference.
How we're sizing it
Quarter-Kelly fraction of a $10,000 bankroll, capped at 3% per play. Pays $1,784 on top of stake if it hits.
Edge ≥ +50%, model conviction above the 2% floor. Worth a real stake.
Where to bet it
Best retail price highlighted. Same ticket, different payouts. N/A = book hasn't posted this future.
Pinnacle and Circa rarely post Super Bowl outrights — they sharpen up on weekly game lines. Track them here all season; the moment they post, you'll see why everyone watches their number.
What kills this pick
- QB injury — power ratings don't yet adjust mid-season for a starter going down. A franchise QB lost in October moves our number 3–4 points.
- Schedule volatility — Monte Carlo runs the regular season but is sensitive to early bye weeks and division strength swings.
- Line movement — book moves the price toward our number as sharp money comes in. CLV protects us; getting in now matters.
- Pre-preseason — May ratings use prior-year final standings. We re-rate after Week 4 once we have on-field data.