The Numbers

Power ratings.

Ridge-regularized opponent-adjusted EPA, projected to points-vs-average. Top of the board wins more than the bottom of the board, the rest is fighting for inches.

#	Team	Rating	Mean Wins	Playoffs	Div	Conf	SB
1	DAL	+4.34	10.6	78.9%	52.3%	20.0%	11.8%
2	SF	+2.76	10.0	67.8%	43.1%	12.4%	6.7%
3	GB	+2.65	9.8	65.8%	43.2%	11.8%	6.5%
4	BUF	+2.60	10.1	71.2%	44.3%	15.6%	8.3%
5	CIN	+2.22	9.8	67.3%	43.9%	13.6%	6.9%
6	LA	+2.12	9.5	60.0%	33.0%	9.4%	5.1%
7	WAS	+2.12	9.4	56.5%	25.3%	9.0%	4.8%
8	CHI	+1.71	9.3	57.1%	33.4%	8.2%	4.2%
9	IND	+1.69	9.6	64.6%	43.9%	11.6%	5.6%
10	MIA	+1.17	9.1	52.3%	24.0%	7.9%	3.8%
11	BAL	+1.15	9.2	55.9%	30.9%	8.7%	4.1%
12	NYG	+1.09	8.8	45.6%	18.0%	5.4%	2.4%
13	DET	+0.73	8.6	41.5%	20.4%	4.6%	2.3%
14	KC	+0.70	9.0	56.1%	40.6%	7.7%	3.5%
15	TB	+0.51	8.8	51.8%	39.3%	6.1%	2.9%
16	NE	+0.39	8.8	46.8%	20.2%	5.7%	2.7%
17	PIT	+0.30	8.7	47.1%	23.4%	6.4%	2.9%
18	ARI	+0.15	8.2	33.7%	14.6%	3.1%	1.5%
19	JAX	-0.21	8.5	43.0%	22.4%	5.2%	2.3%
20	CAR	-0.21	8.1	36.1%	24.3%	3.6%	1.7%
21	TEN	-0.23	8.8	48.6%	26.7%	5.5%	2.3%
22	ATL	-0.41	8.2	38.7%	26.7%	3.3%	1.5%
23	NYJ	-0.71	8.0	32.5%	11.5%	3.0%	1.3%
24	DEN	-0.95	8.1	36.6%	23.6%	3.9%	1.6%
25	LAC	-1.28	8.1	37.3%	24.5%	3.4%	1.3%
26	SEA	-1.32	7.7	26.1%	9.3%	1.5%	0.7%
27	PHI	-1.88	7.1	16.4%	4.4%	1.0%	0.4%
28	NO	-2.82	6.8	15.7%	9.7%	0.7%	0.3%
29	HOU	-3.22	6.8	16.4%	7.0%	0.9%	0.2%
30	LV	-3.33	7.0	19.1%	11.3%	0.9%	0.3%
31	MIN	-4.07	6.1	8.1%	2.9%	0.2%	0.0%
32	CLE	-5.51	5.6	5.2%	1.8%	0.1%	0.0%